Exports push up GDP growth in US to 3.3% in second quarter

Posted: 28 August 2008 2105 hrs

WASHINGTON: The US economy outpaced expectations as surging exports fuelled a second-quarter growth spurt at a 3.3 percent pace, according to data on Thursday that analysts say makes recession less likely.

The Commerce Department revised upward last month's estimate of a 1.9 percent annualised pace of growth in gross domestic product (GDP).

The figure was much better than the average Wall Street estimate of 2.7 percent and showed a strong acceleration from the 0.9 percent rate of the first three months of the year.

The latest figures, helped somewhat by a massive economic stimulus package, suggest the world's biggest economy had more momentum than previously thought by analysts, many of whom anticipated recession.

"For a recession the economy is certainly growing very quickly," said Avery Shenfeld, senior economist at CIBC World Markets.

"A lot of that growth is driven off exports and pessimists might say that can't continue during slowing growth overseas, but I would say this happened precisely during the period of slowing growth overseas ... this is still an economy that faces slow times but not a recession."

Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates, said he sees conflicting signals in recent economic data.

"A lot of the monthly indicators are suggesting recession but things like new orders and GDP suggest the economy is improving."

Some analysts said the economy still has a recession feel despite the robust figure, and that special factors may be distorting the GDP rate.

"If the US economy were growing at its potential pace, the unemployment rate would not have risen a full percentage point over the past year," said Citigroup economist Steven Wieting, who argues that data on new jobless claims are "still recessionary."

The revised report showed trade alone accounted for 3.10 percentage points in the overall growth rate. It showed exports surged 13.2 percent, instead of an earlier estimate of 9.2 percent, while exports fell 7.6 percent, instead of 6.6 percent.

Consumer spending, the largest component of economic activity, was up a modest 1.7 percent, just 0.2 points more than previously estimated, despite a massive 168-billion-dollar government stimulus package that sent out tax rebates to tens of millions of people.

The main drag on growth remained the housing sector, with investment in residential property slumping 15.7 percent, not as bad as the 25.1 percent slide in the first quarter.

Business spending grew 2.2 percent and government expenditures by 6.8 percent.

A key inflation index linked to GDP rose 4.2 percent while core prices excluding food and energy were up 2.1 percent.

Still, many analysts expect the current growth pace to continue to slow, consumer spending is sluggish and a rebound in the dollar may curb growth in exports.

"With economies abroad slowing and the one-time impact of tax rebates dissipating, we expect annualised economic growth to recede to near 1.0 percent in the third quarter and to maintain this pace into early-2009 before gradually improving," said Peter Kretzmer, an economist at Bank of America.

Aaron Smith at Economy.com also said the strong figure is misleading.

"The better-than-expected outcome overall does not change our view that the economy is weakening, with the beneficial effects of rebate checks and foreign demand fading fast," Smith said.

The US Federal Reserve has held its base interest rate at a low 2.0 percent as part of an effort to fire up a lagging economy hurt by tight credit and weak housing. But in the past few months the central bank has indicated the next move will likely be an increase to keep inflationary pressures in check.

The central bank has forecast 2008 growth in a range of 1.0 to 1.6 percent, up from an April projection of 0.3 to 1.2 percent. - AFP/ir/de

上海市中心楼盘惊现“跳楼价” 越降越不买

http://www.Anjia.com 房地产门户-安家网 2008年08月28日 09:05 中国经济时报

http://www.anjia.com/

全国楼市降声一片，上海也不例外。

“热烈庆祝房价下降。太好了。”8月22日，有上海市民在论坛里表示。此前一天，全国多家媒体同时报道了上海市中心某楼盘每平方米狂降7000元的消息。

作为全国最坚挺的楼市，上海也未能避免房价出现“跳水”。

“早在一个多月前，我就注意到了上海房价出现下降。”夏航是上海某集团公司高管，在上海、北京等地从事房地产收购业务，最近几个月，接触了很多资金紧张的开发商。在夏先生看来，眼下楼市就是一场博弈。

“未来房价走势，要看谁挺得住，如果开发商挺不住，房价就会降。”房地产界普遍担心的问题在于，“房价越降，老百姓越不买房。”

惊现“跳楼价”

上周，一直被认为保值升值功能最好的上海市中心楼盘，成了房价下跌的领头羊。

来自上海佑威房地产研究中心的最新报告显示，8月18日，上海中远两湾城的29套房源集中成交，均价13842元/平方米，比上半年21049元/平方米跌了7200多元/平方米！

无独有偶，大华锦绣华城8月拿出1、2号楼促销，成交的61套房源均价13551元/平方米，其中5套特价房均价12079元/平方米，比上半年17740元/平方米的均价，跌幅达5600多元/平方米！这与近日当地两地产巨头万科、金地之间备受关注的价格战相比，有过之而无不及。

在调查中中国经济时报记者了解到，去年初，报价仅每平方米13000元的中远两湾城，今年2月价格曾高达23000元。其均价从去年初的13030元一 路涨到今年3月的最高点22336元，涨幅高达71%，不过成交量却一路下滑。7月初，尽管中远两湾城首次在当地媒体打出9折广告，售价大幅下降了 3000多元，但销售业绩仍不理想。当地业界人士认为，这也是其选择进一步降价的原因。

进入8月，中远两湾城降价幅度明显扩大，至8月21日，成交的34套房源每平方米均价仅14001元，引人关注的是，其中8月18日集中成交的29套房源 均价仅13842元，8月21日成交的三套更是低至13804元，相比最高点的3月份价格已经跌去8532元，跌幅高达40%。

同样，作为当地超级大盘的大华锦绣华城，去年初均价涨到10000元，今年初最高达到19000元，如今回落到了12079元的价位。

除以上两个楼盘外，万科金色雅筑、阳城贵都等这些近期领跌的楼盘无一例外都位于上海目前居住氛围最成熟的内中环区域，而远中风华园、上海滩新昌城、君御豪庭等上海中心区的楼盘近期也都出现了下跌现象。

几只有兴趣的股票

COSCO
SGX
Capital Land
Kepple Land
Guoco Land
NOL

http://stquote.sgx.com/live/st/IndexSum.asp

瑞银估计三个月内 新元美元汇率将上涨至1.4:1

（2008-08-28）
　　(新加坡综合电)瑞士银行(UBS)表示，新元对美元汇率在3个月内将上涨1.2%，至1.40新元，因为持续的通货膨胀使得央行难以拖延新元币值上升。
　　据彭博社报道，新加坡通货膨胀7月份放缓，但其放缓的幅度小于经济分析师的预期。此前三个月通货膨胀处于26年的高点。
　　瑞银外汇分析员哲曼尼尔(Benedikt Ger- manier)说，“央行考虑采取中立的立场还为时太早。”哲曼尼尔在昨天的文件中写道，“我们不排除在央行10月份的会议上，会采取逐步升值的政策。”
　　昨天上午11点50分，新元对美元汇率为1.4170新元，上升0.6%。本季度，新元对美元下跌4%，成为亚洲10种最活跃货币中，表现最差的货币。
　　市场认为，新加坡经济增长放缓和出口下降，会刺激决策者采取重点支持经济增长，而不是应对通货膨胀的政策。
　　另据路透社报道，汇丰(HSBC)经济分析师罗伯特普赖尔(Robert Prior)表示：“整个政策立场，不必然是汇率政策，是不应太宽松而导致出现第二轮的通货膨胀效应。”
　　分析员估计，在过去的12个月，新元对美元汇率上涨了近5%，足以使一些经济学家相信，新加坡的货币政策已经相当紧。
　　另外，随着欧洲经济形势转暗，美元成了主要受益者。周二早盘，德国公布的一项主要商业景气指数出人意料地疲软，欧元兑美元随即跌入6年来低点，英镑兑美元也跌至两年低点。
　　不过，因经济分析师预期本周公布的美国经济数据将显示，耐用品订单下滑，美国企业和消费支出疲软，美元兑欧元自6个月高点下滑，兑日元也走低，市场预期美国企业和消费支出疲软将延后美国联储局加息时间。
　　美元兑英镑则自两年高点下滑。澳元自11个月低点反弹，亚洲股市上涨带给投资者买进海外高收益率资产的信心。
Sonray资本市场首席经济专家班尼特(Clifford Bennett)表示，美国经济还将经受更多阵痛，持续时间会比世界其他地区更长。美元未来几周甚至几天都可能大幅下滑。
　　伦敦时间上午6点，美元兑欧元报1.4719美元，前天纽约尾盘报1.4653美元，当时曾触及1.4571，为2月14日来最高点。

中国金属 （FerroChina） 目标价：2.44元

（2008-08-28）

　　基于股价过去几天出现不寻常的交易活动，管理层发出声明澄清公司并不知道任何原因或发展造成股价暴跌。自从它宣布强劲的第二季业绩后，股价大跌已经令管理层感到意外。
　　联昌国际研究认为，它的业务正进展顺利，并没有什么事项可引起关注。从需求的角度来看，它正目睹强劲的国内需求。除了中国的基础建设发展外，华南暴风雪和四川大地震的重建工程也刺激对它产品的需求。四川官员估计当地接下来三年会需要3700万公吨钢铁。
　　要说或会引起关注的事项，应该与资本结构有关。它最近进行更多美元债务。考虑到更多的资本开支需要，它接下来一年若是进行更多美元债务，并不令人感到意外。尽管这会导致一些摊薄影响，盈利增长应该足以抵消摊薄的不利冲击。此外，它目前正与两方谈商策略性投资计划，其中与一方的谈商已经进入相当深入的阶段。
　　联昌国际维持对它的业绩预测以及“表现优于大市”评级，并将把目标价定为2.44元，相等于8倍的明年本益比。有利刺激因素包括策略性投资者的入股，这可改善其负债与资产比率（gearing），并为集团创造出新增长机会。
　　中国金属昨日闭市报89分，跌1分。
　（联昌国际研究，CIMB-GK Research）