（2008-10-22）
新加坡石油（SPC）第三季净利受到油价下滑的影响，下滑了99.4％，报62万元。这也使集团首三季净利下滑28.3％，报2亿7937万元。
截至9月30日，集团首三季营收上涨50.4％，报92亿6365万元，税前盈利下滑16.7％，报3亿6110万元。集团每股盈利54.21分，每股净资产值3.43元。
吉宝讯通(Keppel Telecommunications & Transportation)第三季净利（若不包括特殊项目）增加0.3％，报1240万元，带动集团首三季净利上涨0.8％，报3503万元。
若包括特殊项目，集团的首三季净利则下滑5.2％，报3289万元。
截至9月30日，集团的首三季营收增长30.1％，报9415万元，税前盈利上涨4.6％，报4503万元。
第三季每股盈利为2.1分，净有形资产值46分。
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
嘉德置地
（2008-10-22）
本栏于今年8月15日曾论及这只股票一个跌势“斜向交叉”已完成，短期回扯将填补介于 5.59元至5.70元及介于6.00元至6.10元间的缺口，一旦动力耗尽，当骤然下跌。当时股价为5.00元左右，可惜股价竟然回升乏力，随即骤然下跌，截至10月10日股价已下试2.28元。若以上图中的第（三）点至第（四）点价差的1.618倍，计自位于今年4月28日第（五）点的7.18元，则其基本目标应是1.68元，一旦穿下此价位，则其主要支撑线将是1.15元了。投资者当酌价在回扯时套利，正是“有花堪折直须折”
本栏于今年8月15日曾论及这只股票一个跌势“斜向交叉”已完成，短期回扯将填补介于 5.59元至5.70元及介于6.00元至6.10元间的缺口，一旦动力耗尽，当骤然下跌。当时股价为5.00元左右，可惜股价竟然回升乏力，随即骤然下跌，截至10月10日股价已下试2.28元。若以上图中的第（三）点至第（四）点价差的1.618倍，计自位于今年4月28日第（五）点的7.18元，则其基本目标应是1.68元，一旦穿下此价位，则其主要支撑线将是1.15元了。投资者当酌价在回扯时套利，正是“有花堪折直须折”
APL将减运改航以节省成本
（2008-10-22）
海皇轮船（NOL）旗下的箱运业务公司APL将减低货运容量并重组国际航运线路以削减成本，同时在这箱运业务面临巨大挑战的时期维持服务水平。
APL的亚欧（Asia-Europe）贸易航线的箱运容量将减少近25％，而从下个月2日起，其中国欧洲快递服务（China Europe Express）将暂停直到另行通知。其港口范围及南中国快递服务的航线将因此有所改变。
此外，APL跨太平洋（transpacific）的贸易航线箱运容量则将减少近20％。公司也将取消一个亚洲国家之间的贸易航线——Singapore Subcontinent快递服务航线。
海皇轮船（NOL）旗下的箱运业务公司APL将减低货运容量并重组国际航运线路以削减成本，同时在这箱运业务面临巨大挑战的时期维持服务水平。
APL的亚欧（Asia-Europe）贸易航线的箱运容量将减少近25％，而从下个月2日起，其中国欧洲快递服务（China Europe Express）将暂停直到另行通知。其港口范围及南中国快递服务的航线将因此有所改变。
此外，APL跨太平洋（transpacific）的贸易航线箱运容量则将减少近20％。公司也将取消一个亚洲国家之间的贸易航线——Singapore Subcontinent快递服务航线。
Bank of Canada cuts rate by quarter point
Reduction in growth forecasts 'startling'
Published: Tuesday, October 21, 2008
The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark-lending rate Tuesday by a quarter point, citing an "uncertain" outlook for growth and inflation that poses "significant risks" to the economy.
It also indicated that another reduction "will likely" be in the offing.
The bank's accompanying statement, analysts say, was "quite blunt" about the impact the global financial crisis will have on Canada, and included a "startling" downward revision in growth expectations.
As a result of Tuesday's move, the Bank of Canada overnight rate stands at 2.25%.
The central bank warned that the turmoil in credit markets would "restrain growth for some time," and added the global economy "appears" headed for a "mild recession," which economists consider to be output of less than 3%. That global downturn, it said, is led by a U.S. economy "already in recession" -- making the Bank of Canada one of the first main financial authorities to declare the United States to be in such a state.
The Bank of Canada now projects Canada will record weak growth, of 0.6%, for both this year and next, an indication the country may avoid a recession, or two consecutive quarters of contraction. But this remains in stark contrast to the central bank's initial outlook, which was growth of 1% this year and 2.3% in 2009.
"The Bank of Canada reduced its forecasts ... by a startling degree," James Marple, an economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, said.
The central bank noted that in the short-term, the "sizeable" depreciation in the Canadian dollar, now trading in the low-US80 cent range, will "provide an important offset" to the effects of weaker global demand and lower commodity prices.
The Bank of Canada was the first central bank among the half-dozen that participated in the co-ordinated 50-basis-point cut on Oct. 8 to move on rates. The majority of economists expected a rate cut on Tuesday, though most believed the cut would be deeper, 50 basis points instead of 25.
With this latest cut, the Bank of Canada has reduced its benchmark-lending rate by 225 basis points since last December. There is now an expectation that the central bank may cut another 25 basis points at its next meeting, on Dec. 9.
It is unclear whether the country's chartered banks will pass on Tuesday's rate cut to its customers, because of the way the global credit crunch is squeezing their own cost of capital.
The statement accompanying the Bank of Canada's decision provides a glimpse of the central bank's economic outlook, which will be spelled out in full Thursday in its latest edition of its monetary policy update.
"The weaker outlook for global demand will increase the drag on the Canadian economy from exports," the bank statement said. "Lower commodity prices will also dampen the outlook, working through a deterioration in Canada's terms of trade to moderate domestic demand growth."
The central bank said that inflationary pressures "will ease significantly," largely on the back of "sharp declines" in commodity prices. It now projects core inflation will remain below its 2% target until the end of 2010. (The bank aims to set its benchmark rate to bring inflation to 2%.)
"In line with the new outlook, some further monetary stimulus will likely be required to achieve the 2% inflation target over the medium term," the bank said. "The evolution of the financial crisis, its impact on the global economy and the timing of the effects of the various extraordinary measures being taken to address it pose significant risks to [the bank's] projection on the both the upside and the downside."
Michael Gregory, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said the bank's statement was "quite blunt" in terms of the impact the global financial crunch is having on the domestic economy. Mr. Marple of TD noted the bank's comments were "much-less guarded" than what market participants have come to expect.
In 2010, the Bank of Canada expects "above-potential" growth of 3.4%, based on improved credit conditions, stronger global growth and the lagged effects of monetary policy.
Published: Tuesday, October 21, 2008
The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark-lending rate Tuesday by a quarter point, citing an "uncertain" outlook for growth and inflation that poses "significant risks" to the economy.
It also indicated that another reduction "will likely" be in the offing.
The bank's accompanying statement, analysts say, was "quite blunt" about the impact the global financial crisis will have on Canada, and included a "startling" downward revision in growth expectations.
As a result of Tuesday's move, the Bank of Canada overnight rate stands at 2.25%.
The central bank warned that the turmoil in credit markets would "restrain growth for some time," and added the global economy "appears" headed for a "mild recession," which economists consider to be output of less than 3%. That global downturn, it said, is led by a U.S. economy "already in recession" -- making the Bank of Canada one of the first main financial authorities to declare the United States to be in such a state.
The Bank of Canada now projects Canada will record weak growth, of 0.6%, for both this year and next, an indication the country may avoid a recession, or two consecutive quarters of contraction. But this remains in stark contrast to the central bank's initial outlook, which was growth of 1% this year and 2.3% in 2009.
"The Bank of Canada reduced its forecasts ... by a startling degree," James Marple, an economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, said.
The central bank noted that in the short-term, the "sizeable" depreciation in the Canadian dollar, now trading in the low-US80 cent range, will "provide an important offset" to the effects of weaker global demand and lower commodity prices.
The Bank of Canada was the first central bank among the half-dozen that participated in the co-ordinated 50-basis-point cut on Oct. 8 to move on rates. The majority of economists expected a rate cut on Tuesday, though most believed the cut would be deeper, 50 basis points instead of 25.
With this latest cut, the Bank of Canada has reduced its benchmark-lending rate by 225 basis points since last December. There is now an expectation that the central bank may cut another 25 basis points at its next meeting, on Dec. 9.
It is unclear whether the country's chartered banks will pass on Tuesday's rate cut to its customers, because of the way the global credit crunch is squeezing their own cost of capital.
The statement accompanying the Bank of Canada's decision provides a glimpse of the central bank's economic outlook, which will be spelled out in full Thursday in its latest edition of its monetary policy update.
"The weaker outlook for global demand will increase the drag on the Canadian economy from exports," the bank statement said. "Lower commodity prices will also dampen the outlook, working through a deterioration in Canada's terms of trade to moderate domestic demand growth."
The central bank said that inflationary pressures "will ease significantly," largely on the back of "sharp declines" in commodity prices. It now projects core inflation will remain below its 2% target until the end of 2010. (The bank aims to set its benchmark rate to bring inflation to 2%.)
"In line with the new outlook, some further monetary stimulus will likely be required to achieve the 2% inflation target over the medium term," the bank said. "The evolution of the financial crisis, its impact on the global economy and the timing of the effects of the various extraordinary measures being taken to address it pose significant risks to [the bank's] projection on the both the upside and the downside."
Michael Gregory, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said the bank's statement was "quite blunt" in terms of the impact the global financial crunch is having on the domestic economy. Mr. Marple of TD noted the bank's comments were "much-less guarded" than what market participants have come to expect.
In 2010, the Bank of Canada expects "above-potential" growth of 3.4%, based on improved credit conditions, stronger global growth and the lagged effects of monetary policy.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
业绩
K-REIT亚洲(K-REIT Asia)的首三季可派发收入达4077万元，比去年同时期增加174％。该信托在这段期间的总收入是3836万元，房地产净收入为2785万元，分别比去年同期高32％和31％。每股可派发股息计6.28分。
Monday, October 20, 2008
为何美元这么硬这么强？
美元因美国金融业危机而获益
美国可能面临着大萧条以来最严重的金融危机，但从美元上你却看不出这一点。
美元汇率非但没有因政府对金融业的救助而走低，反而呈现出上扬势头。这出乎很多人的意料，他们原本预计政府开支的不断增加以及美国经济的下滑会对美元产生削弱作用。
而实际情况却是，美元正因全球资金从高风险资产中流出以及融资套利交易的解除而获益。当前这场危机的范围也对美元有利，因为很显然，经济和银行业出问题的并非只有美国。
加州大学伯克利分校(University of California, Berkeley)的经济学家巴里•埃成格林(Barry Eichengreen)说，美元的强势令他吃惊，目前表现比美元强劲的货币并不多。
美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)编制的一个指数显示，自9月初以来，美元兑26种货币的贸易加权汇率已上涨了8%。这一指数目前大约为2007年2月时的水平，也就是说自那以来贝尔斯登公司(Bear Stearns Cos.)倒闭以及Fed数次下调利率对美元造成的不利影响目前都未在这一指数中反映出来。
美元的涨势如此凌厉，以致于投资者们警告说，美元的上涨应该告一段落了。就像美元近来从全球市场的动荡中获益一样，全球市场趋于稳定也有可能使美元失去一些最近的涨幅。
中、长期而言，美元的强势仍然取决于外国人对美国资产的兴趣，而美国经济不稳以及美国政府支出的增长有可能对这种兴趣形成考验。至少目前而言美元已经显示了其抗跌性，给那些看好美元的人提供了证据，这些人说美元的长期下滑趋势已于今年早些时候结束。
广告近来一些持续了很长时间的投资趋势纷纷出现逆转，如对新兴市场股票的买盘兴趣以及押宝大宗商品价格会不断上扬等，美元汇率最近的上扬也是这种逆转现象之一。当投资者从这些资产中撤出时，他们往往会将变现资金兑换成美元。
在多年来不断将资金投向海外之后，美国投资者目前正在将资金撤回国内。据美国财政部截止到7、8两个月的最新数据显示，美国投资者这两个月卖出的外国股票和债券比买进的多570亿美元，资金回撤额创下历史之最。
由于过去一个月中银行间美元拆借的正常渠道已几乎断绝，从韩国到瑞士，世界各地的银行都在想尽办法搞美元，这也对美元汇率起了提振作用。国际清算银行 (Bank for International Settlements)的数据显示，美元依然是最受全球银行界欢迎的货币，占这些银行外币资产和债务的55%。
一些投资者说，市场目前对美元的兴趣类似于其对日圆的喜好，而日圆现在是少数几种兑美元汇率呈上扬的货币。日圆经常在市场出现动荡时表现强劲，因为在市况平稳时，投资者往往会借入日圆以利用日本的超低利率牟利。
而当市场波动性加大，或投资者需要弥补在其他方面遭遇的损失时，他们就会解除这种融资套利交易，从市场上买回日圆，从而推高日圆汇率。从市场最近对美元的需求判断，似乎投资者、对冲基金和银行正在将美元当作融资套利交易的借入资金，就象他们当初借入日圆一样。
而在市场剧烈动荡时，投资者也会将美国国债视为投资避风港。来自外国央行的需求十分重要，因为它们是美国债券的主要买家。Fed代其他国家央行持有的美国国债数量多寡是衡量外国央行这种需求的一个指标。最新数据显示，过去四周内这类美国国债增加了约1,000亿美元。
这表明了外国人对美国资产的信心，而这种信心对美国金融体系是至关重要的。如果外国人停止购买美国资产，甚至开始抛售它们，美元汇率将大幅下挫，美国利率将大幅飙升，从而使已经疲弱的美国经济雪上加霜。
虽然一些投资者担心，美国政府救助本国金融业的财政开支最终将打压美元汇率，但经济学家们提醒说，这方面的最终影响目前还不清晰。与日本和意大利等国相比，美国的政府总债务与国内生产总值之比要低得多，甚至比德国还要略低。
哈佛大学(Harvard University)经济学教授肯尼斯•罗格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)说，从历史经验看，很难说预算赤字会对汇率产生重大影响。他指出，理论上说，预算赤字对利率的影响更大。
虽然近年来美国预算赤字增长总是同美元汇率走低相伴出现的，但在上世纪80年代二者的走势却是一致的：与预算赤字增长相伴的是美元汇率的走强，特别是在高利率的环境下。
经济学家们说，经常项目赤字对美元汇率的影响更为显著，这一数字是衡量美国进口大于出口有多严重的广泛指标。美国的经常项目赤字虽然已有所下降，但要达到健康水平仍然任重道远。国际货币基金组织(IMF)估计，美国经常项目赤字与国内生产总值之比明年将从2006年时的6%缩小到3.3%。
如果市场动荡程度减弱，投资者可能会将关注焦点重新放在美国与其主要竞争对手谁的经济增长前景更佳上来。与世界其他国家的央行不同，Fed早在一年多前就已开始下调利率，而这已对美元产生了负面影响。
现在随着其他国家央行也纷纷开始降息，美元肩上的担子会相对减轻。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席货币经济师任永力(Stephen Jen)说，美国在降息的道路上已经走了很远，而欧洲却不是这样。
美国可能面临着大萧条以来最严重的金融危机，但从美元上你却看不出这一点。
美元汇率非但没有因政府对金融业的救助而走低，反而呈现出上扬势头。这出乎很多人的意料，他们原本预计政府开支的不断增加以及美国经济的下滑会对美元产生削弱作用。
而实际情况却是，美元正因全球资金从高风险资产中流出以及融资套利交易的解除而获益。当前这场危机的范围也对美元有利，因为很显然，经济和银行业出问题的并非只有美国。
加州大学伯克利分校(University of California, Berkeley)的经济学家巴里•埃成格林(Barry Eichengreen)说，美元的强势令他吃惊，目前表现比美元强劲的货币并不多。
美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)编制的一个指数显示，自9月初以来，美元兑26种货币的贸易加权汇率已上涨了8%。这一指数目前大约为2007年2月时的水平，也就是说自那以来贝尔斯登公司(Bear Stearns Cos.)倒闭以及Fed数次下调利率对美元造成的不利影响目前都未在这一指数中反映出来。
美元的涨势如此凌厉，以致于投资者们警告说，美元的上涨应该告一段落了。就像美元近来从全球市场的动荡中获益一样，全球市场趋于稳定也有可能使美元失去一些最近的涨幅。
中、长期而言，美元的强势仍然取决于外国人对美国资产的兴趣，而美国经济不稳以及美国政府支出的增长有可能对这种兴趣形成考验。至少目前而言美元已经显示了其抗跌性，给那些看好美元的人提供了证据，这些人说美元的长期下滑趋势已于今年早些时候结束。
广告近来一些持续了很长时间的投资趋势纷纷出现逆转，如对新兴市场股票的买盘兴趣以及押宝大宗商品价格会不断上扬等，美元汇率最近的上扬也是这种逆转现象之一。当投资者从这些资产中撤出时，他们往往会将变现资金兑换成美元。
在多年来不断将资金投向海外之后，美国投资者目前正在将资金撤回国内。据美国财政部截止到7、8两个月的最新数据显示，美国投资者这两个月卖出的外国股票和债券比买进的多570亿美元，资金回撤额创下历史之最。
由于过去一个月中银行间美元拆借的正常渠道已几乎断绝，从韩国到瑞士，世界各地的银行都在想尽办法搞美元，这也对美元汇率起了提振作用。国际清算银行 (Bank for International Settlements)的数据显示，美元依然是最受全球银行界欢迎的货币，占这些银行外币资产和债务的55%。
一些投资者说，市场目前对美元的兴趣类似于其对日圆的喜好，而日圆现在是少数几种兑美元汇率呈上扬的货币。日圆经常在市场出现动荡时表现强劲，因为在市况平稳时，投资者往往会借入日圆以利用日本的超低利率牟利。
而当市场波动性加大，或投资者需要弥补在其他方面遭遇的损失时，他们就会解除这种融资套利交易，从市场上买回日圆，从而推高日圆汇率。从市场最近对美元的需求判断，似乎投资者、对冲基金和银行正在将美元当作融资套利交易的借入资金，就象他们当初借入日圆一样。
而在市场剧烈动荡时，投资者也会将美国国债视为投资避风港。来自外国央行的需求十分重要，因为它们是美国债券的主要买家。Fed代其他国家央行持有的美国国债数量多寡是衡量外国央行这种需求的一个指标。最新数据显示，过去四周内这类美国国债增加了约1,000亿美元。
这表明了外国人对美国资产的信心，而这种信心对美国金融体系是至关重要的。如果外国人停止购买美国资产，甚至开始抛售它们，美元汇率将大幅下挫，美国利率将大幅飙升，从而使已经疲弱的美国经济雪上加霜。
虽然一些投资者担心，美国政府救助本国金融业的财政开支最终将打压美元汇率，但经济学家们提醒说，这方面的最终影响目前还不清晰。与日本和意大利等国相比，美国的政府总债务与国内生产总值之比要低得多，甚至比德国还要略低。
哈佛大学(Harvard University)经济学教授肯尼斯•罗格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)说，从历史经验看，很难说预算赤字会对汇率产生重大影响。他指出，理论上说，预算赤字对利率的影响更大。
虽然近年来美国预算赤字增长总是同美元汇率走低相伴出现的，但在上世纪80年代二者的走势却是一致的：与预算赤字增长相伴的是美元汇率的走强，特别是在高利率的环境下。
经济学家们说，经常项目赤字对美元汇率的影响更为显著，这一数字是衡量美国进口大于出口有多严重的广泛指标。美国的经常项目赤字虽然已有所下降，但要达到健康水平仍然任重道远。国际货币基金组织(IMF)估计，美国经常项目赤字与国内生产总值之比明年将从2006年时的6%缩小到3.3%。
如果市场动荡程度减弱，投资者可能会将关注焦点重新放在美国与其主要竞争对手谁的经济增长前景更佳上来。与世界其他国家的央行不同，Fed早在一年多前就已开始下调利率，而这已对美元产生了负面影响。
现在随着其他国家央行也纷纷开始降息，美元肩上的担子会相对减轻。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席货币经济师任永力(Stephen Jen)说，美国在降息的道路上已经走了很远，而欧洲却不是这样。
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